Gold Near Term Prediction, after the massive double top and as the US10Y settle above 2% and will likely to continue grinding up, overprice gold amid the war will going into more down trend. Gold down $125 since hitting this level and it’s severely overbought in the short-term. Check our article on gold trading gauge to have same view here.
Looking at the price now, it has a nice rebound on sell the fact om FOMC right on the VWAP. It may be on its way back down soon. Or rally toward 1970 to complete the right shoulder and facing the big VWAP resistance there. If it is that would be a very good short opportunity to short for near term target 1900 and 1800.
With the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter percentage point and signaled six more such hikes this year, launching a campaign to tackle the fastest inflation in four decades even as risks to economic growth mount. It will keep making yields surging and so USD.
The only counter tendency in this gold trading setup is a new escalation on the calm Ukraine crisis or another catastrophe.
Only short gold when US 10y government bond yield is up and DXY down. Why? The other way to keep your money is to put it in a savings account or into bonds that aren’t very risky and will pay you interest. People who invest in gold lose money when interest rates go up because the yields on savings accounts and bonds also go up, which makes gold less appealing as a long-term investment. It is very important to look at the interest rate when you are trying to figure out how much gold is worth. Storage costs and insurance are two more things to think about. The price of the commodity will be the sum of all of these things.
Take note that this Gold Near Term Prediction trading setup only work in normal condition, we see none of that useful when the Ukraine crisis is everywhere on the news.
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