Weak Ahead Market Upadate | March 2022 Week 11. With any fresh developments, Ukraine will still be in the spotlight. Others could be insignificant and irrelevant on this Weak Ahead Market Upadate. The virus continues to spread throughout Europe and Asia, investors will be keeping an eye on the Covid situation. Further hints about the direction of US monetary policy may come from remarks by numerous Fed members.
On Monday and Wednesday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and other central bank officials will be in the spotlight, with traders hoping to grasp more about whether the central bank plans to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in May and how it intends to reduce its $8.9 trillion balance sheet. The Federal Reserve began tightening monetary policy last week by increasing the fed funds rate by 25 basis points, while also adopting a more hawkish stance and forecasting six further rate hikes for this year. There will also be an eye on Markit PMIs for March; durable goods orders; and the final Michigan consumer sentiment index.
Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s Spring Budget Statement will be closely watched in the United Kingdom, where skyrocketing gas and fuel costs have taken a heavy toll on families and companies alike. The flash Markit PMI, inflation, retail sales, public sector net borrowing and CBI measures of manufacturing orders and distribution transactions will also be watched closely by investors. While retail sales have rebounded the most in nine months, private sector growth has slowed from an 8-month high, and the UK consumer price index is forecast to rise 5.9 percent from a year earlier in February, the most since 1992.
There is likely to be a slowdown throughout Europe’s industrial and service sectors as a result of geopolitical turmoil after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Ifo business Climate indicator for Germany fell to a 13-month low in March, as did consumer confidence in the Eurozone as a whole. Norges Bank is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, while the Swiss National Bank is expected to keep rates unchanged and reiterate its pledge to intervene in the currency markets if necessary in order to limit the franc’s rise in value as a safe haven currency following the Ukraine crisis. Eurozone current account, construction production and monetary indicators are other important publications. Germany’s producer prices are another important publication. Switzerland’s current account, as well as consumer and manufacturing sentiment in Turkey, are other important publications.
It is also worth noting that Russia is expected to make further debt payments next week, which will be closely watched in light of the prospect of a default and the potential for spillover effects.
A monetary policy meeting will be held in China, where officials are likely to keep the crucial 1-year Loan Prime Rate unchanged, after an unexpected decision to keep the Medium-Term Lending Facility Rate unchanged steady this week.
Canada’s producer and raw material inflation and manufacturing sales, Argentina’s fourth-quarter GDP growth numbers, Mexico’s monetary policy decision and month-to-month growth, and mid-month CPI data for Mexico and Brazil will all be noteworthy to keep an eye.