Week Ahead Market Update | March 2022 Week 12

Week Ahead Market Update | March 2022 Week 12

 

Snapshot of incoming Economic Releases:

Consumer Confidence	EZ -German CPI	AU -Retail Sales	CAD GDP
Personal Income & Spending	GE Unemployment	Chinese PMIs
NFP	EZ CPI
ISM Manufacturing

With no sign of a truce in sight, the conflict in the Ukraine will continue to weigh on markets next week. To get an idea of how quickly the Federal Reserve plans to raise interest rates, investors will carefully monitor the US jobs report and personal consumption expenditures data.

The March jobs report and personal consumption expenditures statistics will be the main events of the week in the United States. Markets forecast a 475K increase in jobs and a 3.7 percent unemployment rate. Further bolstering the argument for the Fed to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in May. There is also likely to be a modest gain in personal income and expenditure as well as an increase in annual core PCE inflation. Which the Fed uses as its preferred metric. The ISM Manufacturing PMI, goods trade balance, S&P/Case-Shiller and FHFA home price indexes, JOLTS statistics, CB consumer sentiment, corporate earnings, final GDP growth projections for Q4, and the ADP employment are other noteworthy announcements.

There will also be a focus on manufacturing PMIs for Canada, Brazil and Mexico, along with Canada’s GDP and Brazil’s PPI as well as unemployment statistics and trade balances. As well as Mexico’s jobless numbers and Chile’s decision on interest rates.

Eurozone inflation data, including those for Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, will be published in Europe. A new all-time high of 6.5% year-on-year is projected for the Euro Area’s headline HICP rate in March, up from 5.9% in February. There will also be a focus on statistics from the Euro Area business survey, consumer confidence in Germany from GfK, unemployment data from the BLS and retail sales and import prices from Russia, as well as GDP figures from Switzerland’s KOF and international trade from Turkey for investors to keep a watch on. There will also be final estimates of S&P Global Manufacturing PMIs from the Eurozone, Germany, and France as well as flash data from several additional nations.

GDP growth and the S&P Global/CIPS Manufacturing PMI will be released by the UK as well as the current account, Bank of England’s monetary indicators, and Nationwide house prices. Britain’s economy expanded by only 1% in the fourth quarter of 2021 according to the Office for National Statistics, indicating that the Omicron limitations had less of an effect than first thought.

China, Japan, India, Australia, and South Korea will all release PMI data this week, and they’ll all be the focus of attention for investors in Asia. As a result of the crisis in Ukraine and China’s attempts to curb massive viral outbreaks, the PMIs will reflect how factories are being hit by high inflationary pressures. Japan and South Korea are also likely to provide data on industrial output and business confidence. Retail sales data from February in Australia will also be being watched to see whether consumer spending is on the upswing, which might lead to a rate rise from the Reserve Bank of Australia in mid-year.