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This Week 5 - 9 September 2022 | trading cocktail

This Week 5 – 9 September 2022

This Week 5 – 9 September 2022

Next week’s schedule will be dominated by central bank meetings in the Euro Area, Australia, and Canada as well as several speeches by Fed officials. As well as providing GDP updates for Australia, the Euro Area, Japan, and Canada, China will also give data on its inflation rate and international trade. Following the cancellation of the planned reopening of a vital pipeline carrying Russian gas to Germany, investors will also be keenly monitoring the situation in the European energy market.

The ISM Services PMI, trade statistics, and wholesale inventories will be the main news in the US the next week. Investors will also pay special attention to numerous Fed officials’ remarks, including Fed Chair Powell’s on Thursday at the Cato Institute’s 40th Annual Monetary Conference. On the business front, Apple will conduct its annual event on Wednesday, at which the iPhone 14 is anticipated to be unveiled. Due to Labor Day, markets in the US are closed on Monday. In another part of the United States, the Bank of Canada is anticipated to announce a 75 basis point rate increase, following a higher-than-expected 1% increase in July. Following Canada’s unemployment and trade statistics, Brazil’s inflation and services PMI, and Mexico’s inflation and industrial production will also be noteworthy.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) will decide on the region’s monetary policy. As the region struggles with historically high levels of inflation, markets expect at least another 50 bps increase in borrowing prices. According to preliminary data, the inflation rate in the Euro Area jumped more than anticipated in August to a new record high of 9.1%, increasing the likelihood of a significant 75 basis point rate increase. In fact, a number of ECB officials have recently argued in favor of a significant rate increase and cautioned that high interest rates must persist for a considerable amount of time in order to control prices.

After Gazprom said in a last-minute announcement late on Friday that the crucial pipeline to Europe won’t reopen as anticipated, traders will also pay special attention to the Russian gas supply through Nord Stream. On the macro level, retail sales are anticipated to slightly increase in the Eurozone in July, whilst factory orders in Germany are anticipated to decrease for a sixth consecutive month. Additionally, S&P Global services and construction PMIs for major economies, Switzerland’s Q2 GDP growth and unemployment rate, Turkey’s consumer and producer prices, and Russian inflation statistics will be released after final revisions to the Euro Area’s Q2 GDP growth. The S&P Global services and construction PMIs as well as the Halifax home price index are among the major releases in the United Kingdom.

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Investors will also be keeping an eye on the OPEC+ meeting on Monday, which is anticipated to provide direction for the cartel’s output schedule beginning in October. Major producers are likely to maintain their oil output caps, but Saudi Arabia warned that if Iran signs a nuclear agreement with the West and resumes shipments, the cartel may reduce supply.

For the fourth meeting in a row, the RBA in Australia will increase the cash rate by 50 basis points in an effort to lower the country’s 21-year-high inflation rate. Several macro announcements, such as the Q2 GDP growth rate, foreign trade, and retail sales, will also take center stage.

Consumer inflation in China is anticipated to reach 2.8% in August, increasing from the one-year high reached in the previous month as a result of skyrocketing food costs. Following a record-breaking trade surplus in July, attention will also be paid to trade data. Investors will also be monitoring the Philippines’ and Thailand’s inflation rates as well as the second estimate for Q2 GDP growth in Japan. Last but not least, a 25 bps increase in the Central Bank of Malaysia’s benchmark overnight policy rate is anticipated.

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