This Week in Market 12-16 September 2022
The US calendar will be dominated by data on inflation rates, which should offer additional hints about the Fed’s tightening trajectory. Retail sales and the University of Michigan attitude index are two additional significant announcements. Investors will be likewise closely following the UK inflation rate and monthly GDP numbers. Finally, China will be releasing industrial production, retail sales, and investment growth data for August.
The US August inflation report will be the most keenly watched event. The consumer price index may dip by 0.1% on a monthly basis, the first decrease since May 2020, while the annual inflation rate is predicted to moderate to 8.1% from 8.5%. The annual rate was raised from 5.9% to 6.0% by core inflation, which is still expected to have increased by 0.3% over the previous month. Investors will also pay particular attention to data on US retail sales for hints about how American consumers will behave in the wake of sky-high inflation. The producer price index and the University of Michigan sentiment index are two additional significant publications on the US calendar. It will be interesting to monitor retail sales and business confidence data from Brazil in other parts of America.
The economic calendar in the UK is jam-packed with important updates on wage growth, inflation, and unemployment, as well as data on retail sales, GDP, and inflation. The inflation rate in Britain is predicted to increase just a little bit more to 10.2%, which would be the highest level in more than 40 years. Retail sales probably recovered even more in July. Next the passing of Queen Elizabeth, The Bank of England postponed its decision on interest rates for the following week.
Final estimates of August’s inflation for the Euro Area, which includes Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, will be made public elsewhere in Europe, while some tiny European nations will post preliminary statistics. The German Zew economic sentiment index is also expected to decline further as a result of Russia’s interruption of natural gas shipments. The Central Bank of Russia is anticipated to decrease interest rates by 50 basis points on Friday, marking the sixth straight easing of rates. The output of the industrial sector in the Euro Area, wholesale prices in Germany, the unemployment rate in Turkey, and other data will also be released.
In Australia, it’s anticipated that the jobless rate in August stayed at a record-low 3.4%. The level of consumer and business confidence in September will also be closely watched. The second quarter’s GDP numbers for neighboring New Zealand are expected to show a little improvement in the quarter’s Kiwi economy.
Investors in Asia will be paying particular attention to Chinese releases of statistics on industrial production, retail sales, unemployment, and investment growth for August in order to gain further insight into the effects of power rationing and Covid lockdowns on the world’s second-largest economy. Japan’s trade imbalance is anticipated to reach almost record-high levels as a result of the weak yen and rising energy prices. The second print of industrial output for July and the orders for new machinery are two further recent announcements from Japan. The inflation rate in India is expected to increase for the first time in three months, and trade figures for the industrial production of July and August are also anticipated. The final two countries to provide unemployment statistics are South Korea and Singapore.