This Week 7-11 November 2022
The US midterm elections and multiple remarks by Fed officials will be followed by particular attention to the data on the inflation rate. Investors in Europe will keep an eye on the retail sales for the Euro Area and the UK Q3 GDP growth rate. Last but not least, China will release data on its third-quarter GDP, international trade, inflation, and rates for Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines.
The US inflation report for October will be extensively scrutinized. The annual rate of inflation slowed to 8.0% from 8.2% as a result of the headline inflation rate climbing by 0.7% month over month. Core inflation likely increased by 0.5% over the prior month, resulting in a decline in the annual rate to 6.5% from 6.6%. A number of Fed speeches are also eagerly awaited for additional information regarding the plan to tighten monetary policy. The preliminary November measurement of Michigan consumer sentiment will also be released in the future week. The Senate, the House of Representatives, state legislatures, and governorships will all be up for election during the midterm elections in the United States.
Brazil will release data on retail sales, inflation, and business confidence elsewhere in America. Mexico will release data on industrial production, inflation, and consumer confidence.
The third-quarter GDP growth preliminary estimate for the UK will be released together with more frequent data on industrial production, exports, and construction output. After five straight quarters of growth, the British economy most certainly declined in Q3. The monthly GDP contraction is expected to increase by two percentage points from August to September, and there is no sign of improvement in the outlook for the upcoming months.
Away from Germany, industrial production is anticipated to marginally increase in September, following a three-month decline in retail sales in the Euro Area. Construction PMIs, Germany’s final inflation and current account statistics, France’s balance of trade, Russia’s inflation rate, Switzerland’s unemployment rate, Turkey’s industrial activity and unemployment rate are among the additional data that will be released.
The October CPI print from China, which is anticipated to show that inflation has eased after reaching a two-year high in the prior month, is the topic of intense attention in Asia. Additionally, new trade figures are anticipated for the time period, with import and export growth expected to decelerate. Investors in Japan will be eagerly monitoring the BoJ’s Summary of Opinions after Governor Kuroda made an unprecedented step toward policy normalization by suggesting that the JGB yield curve management strategy might be made more flexible.
Also anticipated is Japan’s September current account. The industrial production for September and the trade balance for October are two important announcements in India. Investors in other countries are awaiting Q3 GDP data for Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines as well as South Korea’s jobless rate.
In Australia, the NAB business confidence report for October and the November Westpac consumer confidence report take center stage. The BusinessNZ PMI for October is awaited in nearby New Zealand.