This Week Focus Point 21 – 26 November
Investors in the US will be closely observing the publication of FOMC meeting minutes, consumer mood data from the University of Michigan, durable goods orders, and new home sales. Additionally, the focus will be on November flash PMI data for significant developed economies like the US, Japan, Germany, France, and Australia. Finally, the direction of monetary policy will be decided by the central banks of China, New Zealand, Sweden, South Korea, Turkey, Malaysia, and South Africa.
The FOMC meeting minutes and various comments by Fed officials will be in the spotlight in the US over the week of Thanksgiving for any indications about the amount of the upcoming interest rate hike in December. For additional hints about the state of the greatest economy in the world, investors will closely monitor the manufacturing and services PMI, durable goods orders, consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan, and new home sales. The earnings season is winding down at the moment. Nevertheless, a flurry of businesses, including Agilent, Analog Devices, Dollar Tree, VMware, Deere & Company, and Pinduoduo, will report. In other parts of the United States, Canada will report retail sales data and Mexico will present its final Q3 GDP estimate.
The UK’s November flash PMI data is anticipated to confirm Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s assertions that the economy is already in recession by revealing a decline in private sector output for the fourth consecutive month. Both the manufacturing and service sectors are expected to experience stronger contractions during the downturn, with the former experiencing a more significant drag. In addition, the ONS will release updated data on public finances, and the CBI will publish its indicator of factory orders.
The ECB releases its minutes from its monetary policy meeting elsewhere in Europe on Thursday. On the macro front, flash S&P Global PMI data is expected to indicate worsening business conditions in the Euro Area, with output contractions in both France and Germany. Nevertheless, the GfK consumer confidence index for Germany and the French consumer confidence are expected to rise, signaling a slight improvement in consumer sentiment across the bloc. The Ifo Business Climate indicator for Germany is also expected to increase somewhat. Along with France’s unemployment statistics and the current account for the Euro Area, investors will also closely monitor detailed data on the German Q3 GDP and producer inflation. The Central Bank of Turkey is anticipated to end its rate-cutting cycle by reducing its interest rate by 150 basis points to 9%, while the Central Bank of Sweden is anticipated to increase borrowing costs.
Due to the fact that the composite reading from last month indicated the first contraction since January, Australia will be focusing on the flash PMI data for November. The RBNZ in New Zealand is anticipated to increase the cash rate by 75 basis points, the fastest rate increase since the beginning of its 325 basis point tightening cycle. Investors also eagerly anticipate the third-quarter retail sales and the October Kiwi balance of trade.
In China, the People’s Bank of China is anticipated to maintain benchmark loan prime rates at current levels for a third consecutive month at its upcoming meeting due to policymakers’ aversion to loosening monetary conditions in light of recent pressure on the yuan. The Jibun Bank flash PMIs for November will be the main topic of discussion in Japan. Investors are also anticipating the central banks of South Korea, Malaysia, and Israel to announce their monetary policies, as well as South Korea’s business and consumer confidence data for November and Thailand’s third-quarter growth figures.