Chairman Powell’s testimony began with a hawkish tone and ended with a more moderate one on his testimony to congress. And the slight risk-on trades happening as BTC and Nasdaq grinding up above the consolidation area. In the meantime, this is the update on hike expectation for 2022:
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Hawks on – Risk-Off or Hawks off — Risk On? Trading cocktail: Hawks on – Risk-Off | BTC/USD drop 10% – 15% Hawks off – Risk On | BTC/USD rise 10% – 15% Hawks on – Risk-Off | NASDAQ drop 1% – 2% Hawks off – Risk On | NASDAQ rise 2% – 4% Later on in the …
The theme of a “more aggressive hike” appears to be gaining a lot of traction in the mainstream media. This smells fishy, and it could be another short term equities and cryptocurrency pump. This is our straightforward thesis, and only time will tell if it is correct.